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BNPL Is Set to Cross $22 Billion This Holiday Season — Should You Offer It?
Buy Now, Pay Later spending during the 2026 holiday season is projected to cross $22 billion in the US for the first time — a genuinely significant milestone that reflects how mainstream postponed payment options have become. For stores still deciding whether to offer BNPL, here's an honest look at what it actually does for conversion and what it costs.
Key Takeaways
- ✓ US holiday BNPL spending is projected to exceed $22 billion for the first time this year.
- ✓ BNPL tends to increase average order value more than it increases raw conversion rate alone.
- ✓ Merchant fees for BNPL are typically higher than standard card processing fees.
- ✓ The clearest fit is higher-priced items where installments genuinely change the purchase decision.
Why BNPL Keeps Growing
Projected to cross $22 billion in US holiday spending for the first time this year, Buy Now, Pay Later has moved from a niche checkout option to a mainstream expectation for a meaningful share of shoppers, particularly younger demographics. The appeal is straightforward: splitting a purchase into several smaller, often interest-free installments lowers the psychological barrier to a larger purchase without the customer needing to open a separate credit line.
What BNPL Actually Does for Conversion
The evidence consistently points to BNPL affecting average order value more reliably than it affects raw conversion rate — shoppers who were already going to buy something often buy more when installments are available, rather than BNPL converting fundamentally hesitant browsers into buyers. This distinction matters for setting realistic expectations before implementing it.
The Cost Side Merchants Should Understand
BNPL providers typically charge merchants a higher transaction fee than standard card processing, in exchange for guaranteeing the full payment upfront and absorbing the risk of the customer's installment plan. This cost needs to be weighed against the average order value lift — for many stores it's a favorable trade, but it's a real cost, not a free feature.
Where BNPL Fits Best
BNPL tends to show its clearest value on higher-priced items where installments genuinely change the purchase calculation — furniture, electronics, and higher-end apparel are common strong-fit categories. For very low-priced items, the psychological barrier BNPL removes is often minimal to begin with, making the added merchant cost harder to justify.
- — Higher-priced items where installments meaningfully ease the purchase decision
- — Categories with naturally higher average order values
- — Audiences skewing younger, where BNPL familiarity and comfort is highest
- — Products where a competitor's BNPL availability creates a genuine comparison disadvantage
Presentation Affects Adoption
How clearly BNPL is presented at the right moment in checkout — not buried, not overly prominent to the point of feeling pushy — affects how much of its potential benefit actually gets captured. A well-integrated BNPL option shown at the natural payment decision point tends to outperform one that feels like an afterthought or a hard sell.
Deciding If BNPL Fits Your Store — With Devrex Digital
A custom-coded store can integrate BNPL cleanly at the right checkout moment, with the flexibility to test whether it genuinely lifts your specific average order value against the added merchant cost. Devrex Digital helps stores evaluate this honestly rather than assuming BNPL is universally worth adding. If you're weighing it for the holiday season, there's still time to implement and test it properly.
FAQs
It's a harder case to make — BNPL's clearest benefit shows up on higher-priced items where installments meaningfully change the purchase decision. For low-priced items, the added merchant fee is harder to justify against a smaller potential benefit.